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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But this year's competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still